Dissecting the Simulation of 4 Capres-Cawapres for the 2024 Presidential Election

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Looking at the dynamics of the latest political situation, where a political party coalition was formed ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election. The latest is the Gerindra-PKB coalition after previously forming Koalisi Indonesia Bersatu (KIB- Golkar, PAN and PPP).

So the 2024 Presidential Election if the implementation refers to a 20% PT according to the 2017 Election Law, it has the potential to open to 4 Capres-Cawapres couples.

The four Capres-Cawapres include the following:

  • The Koalisi Indonesia Bersatu (Golkar, PAN and PPP) of this coalition obtained 25.87% of the seats in the DPR RI and obtained 33,125,559 national votes. The Capres-Cawapres pair is a simulation of Ganjar-Airlangga Hartato. This simulation has the potential to also be named after the figure of Capres Erick Tohir both as Capres and Cawapres. However, Airlangga’s name seems to remain the main choice in the KIB coalition simulation, because of the burgaining of Golkar’s vote and the need for Golkar to carry the figure of the 2024 Capres/Cawapres figure.
  • The next coalition was (Nasdem, PKS and Demokrat) gaining 28.50% of the DPR RI seats and obtaining 35,031,962 national votes. The Capres-Cawapres pair is Anies Baswedan – AHY. This simulation has the potential to also enter other names of unexpected figures whose figures are very close to Anies Baswedan or strengthen the annexation of Anies Baswedan. For example, the figure of Khofifah Indar Parawangsa, or General Andika Perkasa has the potential to exist in the simulation of a couple with Anies Baswedan, there are also other figures who are very close to the ideology of Nationalist Islam.
  • Next is PDIP, the PDIP Political Party which won 22.38% of the DPR RI seats with a national vote of 27,053,961 national votes. Then PDIP can nominate itself without having to compromise. The Puan Maharani-Sandiaga Uno pair has the potential to advance through PDIP, in this simulation it has the potential to enter the name of Cawapres Jenderal Andika Perkasa. Puan Maharani’s name is predicted to remain the Capres with a simulated pairing between Sandiaga Uno or General Andika Perkasa.
  • The Coalition of Gerindra and PKB with a seat gain of 23.25% of the DPR RI or 31,164,936 votes nationally. His partner is Prabowo – Muhaimin Iskandar, these two figures seem irreplaceable if they later co-operate. Prabowo will be his Capres and Muhaimin as Cawapres.  

However, it does not close the possibility of new names appearing in the 2024 Annexation exchange. a situation like in 2019 could have happened, namely the emergence of new names, or even more backwards in the 2014 election where Jokowi’s emergence at that time was also relatively very fast and briefly closed the presidential talks with high electability like megawati at that time.

And, this coalition can change completely at any time, it could be that the 2024 Presidential Election only gave birth to two Capres-Cawapres couples. Names that have high electability today may not be able to advance in 2024.

Everything certainly depends a lot on the dynamics of the political map and the political elite.

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